CMAP and the City of Chicago, working with the nonprofit group Global Philanthropy Partnership, have completed a regional inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2010. The study continues an effort to catalog emissions at regular intervals to understand trends in metropolitan Chicago. It calculates the carbon dioxide and other GHGs released by burning coal, gasoline, and other fuels in the region, as well as the GHGs produced elsewhere that are attributable to the Chicago region, such as the emissions associated with electricity consumed here but generated out of state. In 2010, the Chicago region emitted approximately 126 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO₂e), with emissions from the City of Chicago representing 26 percent of the total. (Five other climate change-causing gases were included in the study, but for comparability, the values are reported relative to the global warming potential of carbon dioxide.)

Relationship to Previous Inventories

In comparison with similar inventories for 2000 and 2005, the new inventory shows that total GHG emissions for the City of Chicago decreased from 2000 to 2010, with a greater decline between 2005 and 2010. In contrast, total emissions in the seven-county region were higher in 2010 than in 2000.  It is worth noting that between 2005 and 2010, the overall decline may be partly attributable to the economic downturn. On a per capita basis, emissions in Chicago increased slightly from 2000 to 2010, while in the balance of the region emissions dropped by a modest amount during the same time period. However, this latter finding is explained by the fact that, according to the 2010 Census, Chicago’s population declined in the last decade while the regional population grew over the same time period.

The relative magnitude of GHG emissions in different categories remained about the same as in previous inventories. Energy use in buildings (natural gas and electricity consumption) represents almost two-thirds of total emissions. Emissions from electricity use increased from 2000 to 2005 and then decreased a bit by 2010, which is due to a drop in consumption (itself partly due to the recession) as well as a drop in the carbon intensity of electricity generation in the power market from which ComEd draws its electricity. Emissions from natural gas use fluctuated slightly from 2000 to 2010. While gas consumption itself decreased steadily during that period, other factors came into play as well, the most significant being a change in the method of calculating the carbon content of natural gas for the 2010 inventory.

On-road transportation remains the next-largest emissions category after building energy use, contributing to about 26 percent of the total. At the regional level, both on-road and off-road transportation increased in 2010 relative to the previous years, but this is due mainly to methodological improvements. The remaining categories in the inventory make small contributions to the total. (Methodological improvements in the product use category resulted in a decreased emissions estimate relative to previous inventories.)

Use of the Inventory

Reducing GHG emissions is the central purpose of the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP), and it is a key goal of GO TO 2040 as well. Implementing many of the recommendations in GO TO 2040 -- such as investing in transit, encouraging more compact development, and conducting energy efficiency building retrofits -- will tend to reduce carbon emissions. A basic way of tracking outcomes of plan implementation over time is successive inventories of GHG emissions. Since the emissions value for 2010 used in GO TO 2040 was actually a short-range projection based on 2005 values, the present study provides a baseline correction. Instead of the 132 MMTCO₂e reported in GO TO 2040, the 2010 value would be 126 MMTCO₂e, a relatively minor change. By contrast, while the City has made significant progress toward implementing CCAP, the 2010 inventory is probably too coarse to detect real changes in emissions due to plan implementation since it began in 2008.

Inventory Methods and Data Availability

The methodology includes a few new wrinkles relative to previous work. For on-road transportation, it uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) MOVES model, which includes more information on vehicle characteristics and is sensitive to the effects of congestion. Previous inventories had used a simple multiplier of annual vehicle miles traveled. The 2010 inventory suggests that congestion in the Chicago region increased on‐road GHG emissions by 5 – 7 percent, depending on modeling assumptions. Off-road transportation estimates relied on the U.S. EPA NONROAD model as well as a detailed GHG inventory for the transit system conducted by the Regional Transportation Authority that had not previously been available. The inventory included an estimate of carbon sequestration, the amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere each year by trees and other vegetation in the region. The results suggest that vegetation offsets 1.3 percent of annual GHG emissions. Finally, this also marked the first time that CMAP and the City of Chicago collaborated on a GHG inventory -- previous inventories were done separately.   

The method of calculating emissions from building energy use was improved slightly from previous inventories but remained essentially the same, particularly in one frustrating aspect. It still required collecting consumption data from at least six utilities in the region. While the utilities have ultimately been very helpful in providing the data, there is no standardized process for requesting it. Personal contacts and persistence are the main tools for obtaining utility data. Long wait times are involved, and there may be restrictions on its use, even in aggregate form. The Improve Access to Information section of GO TO 2040 noted the importance of easing the availability of comprehensive and current data. Future inventories would be much easier and less expensive if regular, automatic updates of utility consumption data were available by county or other geography, preferably via the web.

The data behind the 2010 inventory can be found on CMAP’s Technical Reports web page under Water and Environment.

On May 11, 2012, the Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT) released its two-year strategic plan, “Chicago Forward.”  The plan has six themes: Safety First, Rebuild and Renew, Choices for Chicago, Serving Chicagoans, A More Sustainable City, and Fuel Our Economy.  Twenty-eight policies are organized under these six categories, as well as over 170 action items.  Throughout the plan, multiple examples of recently completed or ongoing CDOT projects illustrate how the department has implemented these policies.

The plan presents several ambitious goals and specific, measureable steps to achieve them.  For example, it pledges that CDOT will eliminate all bicycle, pedestrian, and traffic fatalities within ten years and cites various evaluation, engineering, enforcement, and educational actions -- such as installing countdown pedestrian signals at 300 intersections in 2012 -- to help meet this goal.

“Chicago Forward” is consistent with many policies recommended in GO TO 2040, such as maintaining and modernizing the existing transportation system, promoting alternative modes of transportation, improving public access to information, protecting the natural environment, and enhancing the regional economy.  “Chicago Forward” places particular emphasis on supporting bicycle and pedestrian modes, as well as on sustainable construction and design practices.

Through this plan, CDOT also takes a somewhat regional perspective.  The plan explicitly calls for CDOT to support the implementation of GO TO 2040, acknowledges issues that cross jurisdictions such as air quality and goods movement, and pledges to work with regional partners to address common issues such as transportation financing.  More specifically, the plan identifies the state’s “55/45 split,” in which the Illinois Department of Transportation directs the majority of road funds to downstate Illinois, as a major policy issue.  To learn more about CMAP’s position on these issues, read our issue brief on the 55/45 split, as well as our proposal for performance-based evaluation for transportation funding.

“Chicago Forward” does not provide much detail on how CDOT will finance its recommendations.  The document does not include a budget for the programs identified in the plan, such as expected revenues or cost estimates over the next two years. The plan provides few financial details beyond expenditures on, or estimated cost savings for, a small number of featured projects.  The plan does not mention how CDOT will interface with the newly-passed Chicago Infrastructure Trust and does not provide detail on its proposed transportation enterprise fund.

CDOT’s “Chicago Forward” plan has a comprehensive focus, is consistent with GO TO 2040, and emphasizes transparent performance measurement.  While the policies and projects included in the plan are generally existing initiatives, “Chicago Forward” is the first document to tie them all together under a common framework.  CMAP hopes future plans will assess progress made toward past goals and also include more data on costs and financing.

GO TO 2040 establishes coordinated strategies that help the region’s communities address transportation, housing, economic development, open space, the environment, and other quality-of-life issues.  The metropolitan Chicago region’s ability to implement GO TO 2040 is significantly shaped by decisions made at the state level.  While the Illinois budget's largest spending areas are health and human services and education, the State also plays a significant role in maintaining the transportation system, promoting economic development, and preserving natural resources.  All of these programs are jeopardized if the State does not address its unsustainable Medicaid program and exponentially growing pension liabilities, which are usurping its overall budget.

A recent Illinois State Comptroller’s Quarterly newsletter stated that Illinois is “essentially treading water” with regard to the mismatch between the State’s revenues, expenditures, and future obligations.  The statutorily-required contribution to the State’s retirement systems for FY 2013 is nearly $1 billion more than the required FY 2012 contribution.  To make up for years of underfunding, Illinois statute requires a contribution schedule that will result in the State’s retirement systems being 90 percent funded by 2045.  Meanwhile, a recent Civic Federation budget analysis indicates that the Illinois Medicaid program is underfunded in the current fiscal year by an estimated $1.5 billion. 

At the end of the past several fiscal years, the State has had a significant backlog of unpaid bills for which payments were delayed because of shortfalls in State revenue relative to appropriations.  According to the Comptroller’s Quarterly newsletter, Illinois currently holds approximately $9 billion in total accounts payable, including payments to universities, to Medicaid providers, and for employee health insurance. 

These spending pressures crowd out other spending priorities, such as badly needed investments in transportation infrastructure.  One of GO TO 2040’s major recommendations is that our system must be modernized so the region can compete economically with other U.S. and global economic centers.  Unfortunately, the State’s recently announced multi-modal transportation program, Transforming Transportation for Tomorrow, is significantly impaired by growing pension contributions.  Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) Secretary Ann Schneider recently announced this statewide $9.6 billion multi-year transportation improvement program, which is funded at a level 16 percent lower than the previous six-year program.  The program is an estimated $800 million less than it would have been had pension contributions remained at 2003 levels.  IDOT anticipates that its annual pension contributions for the department's employees will reach $400 million by 2019, which is untenable considering that IDOT's total expenditures for FY 2011 were $2.1 billion.

Credit rating downgrades due to fiscal programs have impeded the State’s ability to cheaply issue bonds.  Moody’s has downgraded the State’s bond rating four times in the last three years, including in January 2012.  Fitch Ratings issued downgrades in 2008, 2009, and 2010.  Standard and Poor’s issued two downgrades in 2009.  According to a 2010 report by the Civic Federation, bonds issued between September 16, 2009 and July 14, 2010 cost Illinois $551.3 million, or 20.9 percent, more than it would have if the State had maintained its 2008 credit rating.  A recent position paper by the Illinois State Treasurer reported that the State’s downgrades have also increased the cost of borrowing for counties and municipalities within Illinois.  Rating agencies have stated that future downgrades may occur if efforts are not made to improve the State’s fiscal condition.  Ongoing spending pressures may affect the State’s liquidity, and therefore its ability to repay bondholders. 

The General Assembly is currently deliberating on proposals that would improve the State’s budgetary outlook, including reforms for the State’s retirement systems and changes to the Medicaid program.  CMAP encourages the Governor and the General Assembly to find long-term solutions for improving the State’s fiscal condition, which must be stable in order for our region to maintain public services and move forward with infrastructure investments.  

Local service coordination, and where appropriate consolidation, is one of several coordinated investment strategies emphasized in GO TO 2040 for local governmental units to create efficiencies and adapt to a future of increasingly limited financial resources. In northeastern Illinois, 307 public school districts collect nearly half of all revenues from local governments (over $18.5 billion in FY 2009).  Yet there is broad agreement that the quality of education in our region -- as measured through student achievement and overall educational attainment -- is lacking and in many cases getting worse.

Last fall, the Illinois General Assembly created the Classrooms First Commission with the following objectives:

• Reduce the money spent on duplication of efforts.
• Improve the education of students.
• Lower the property tax burden.
• Provide recommendations as to what the net cost savings of realignment is to Illinois.
• Provide input to school districts on reorganization.

In April 2012, the Commission released preliminary findings on different cost saving options for districts throughout Illinois.  The options include providing tools for districts to increase efficiencies without consolidation, reducing some of the barriers that hinder voluntary consolidations, and encouraging “virtual” consolidations whereby districts can share administrative services and educational resources. The commission found that these strategies would reduce duplicated efforts, would improve student performance, and could save the state over $1 billion annually.  This projection exceeds the $100 million in savings originally sought by Governor Quinn in his earlier proposal to mandate the consolidation of over 500 of the state’s 866 districts. 

The Commission notes that its work is part of a long-term effort in Illinois — the state has 866 districts in 2011, down from 1,008 in 1984, according to a January 2012 report.  Illinois does have some financial incentives and approved measures in place for consolidation, including general state aid for a newly formed district, subsidies for consolidations of districts carrying budget deficits, and support for increasing salary schedules of teachers from the lower-paid district to achieve parity in the newly formed district. However, the commission identifies several barriers to consolidation and outlines strategies to streamline the processes.

CMAP will continue to monitor the Classrooms First Commission, whose final report is due on or before July 1, 2012.  This effort to pursue coordinated investments is important to the region’s long-term vitality.  In the face of constrained public resources, schools must still find ways to deliver high quality education that prepares students to become civically engaged and contribute to the region’s economy.  The Classrooms First Commission is scheduled to meet again on May 22 at the Illinois State Board of Education in Springfield.